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M'saken vs AS Agareb — Ligue 2 2020

M'saken
M'saken
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Agareb
AS Agareb
12/6/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

M'saken51%
×Draw30%
AS Agareb20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

M'saken
1.26
AS Agareb
0.67

M'saken creates 88% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 26 away

creates per match

M'saken
0.98
AS Agareb
0.58

allows per match

M'saken
0.76
AS Agareb
1.54

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par
AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

AS Agareb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

M'saken or draw
80%
M'saken or AS Agareb
70%
Draw or AS Agareb
49%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+
23%
AS Agareb wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals
72%
M'saken 2+ goals
36%
M'saken 3+ goals
13%
AS Agareb 1+ goals
49%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
15%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)
72%
AS Agareb (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 0.98 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.26

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + M'saken defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

M'saken scores more
51%
level
30%
AS Agareb scores more
20%

M'saken at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: M'saken 0–0 AS Agareb

M'saken and AS Agareb drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 6, 2025.