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AS Agareb vs M'saken — Ligue 2 2020

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
M'saken
M'saken
5/1/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb43%
×Draw30%
M'saken27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
1.17
M'saken
0.85

AS Agareb creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 59 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
1.15
M'saken
0.63

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.08
M'saken
1.20

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
73%
AS Agareb or M'saken
70%
Draw or M'saken
57%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
19%
M'saken wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
69%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
33%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
11%
M'saken 1+ goals
57%
M'saken 2+ goals
21%
M'saken 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
62%
M'saken (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

M'saken attack 0.63 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Agareb scores more
43%
level
30%
M'saken scores more
27%

AS Agareb at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Agareb vs M'saken

AS Agareb beat M'saken 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 1, 2026.