Mławianka Mława 2–3 Bełchatów: Result & Stats

Mławianka Mława

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bełchatów

9/13/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 8Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mławianka Mława50%

×Draw21%

Bełchatów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mławianka MławaExpected goals in this matchBełchatów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.52

Mławianka Mława

2.06

Bełchatów

1.52

Mławianka Mława creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

2.15

creates per match

1.37

1.68

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Mławianka Mława

2.15

Bełchatów

1.37

allows per match

Mławianka Mława

1.68

Bełchatów

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Bełchatów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw

71%

Mławianka Mława or Bełchatów

79%

Draw or Bełchatów

50%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+

29%

Bełchatów wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals

87%

Mławianka Mława 2+ goals

61%

Mławianka Mława 3+ goals

34%

Bełchatów 1+ goals

78%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

45%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)

64%

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.06

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more

50%

level

21%

Bełchatów scores more

29%

Mławianka Mława at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff