Bełchatów 0–1 Mławianka Mława: Result & Stats

Bełchatów

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mławianka Mława

4/4/2026

III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 25GIEKSA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bełchatów47%

×Draw22%

Mławianka Mława30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BełchatówExpected goals in this matchMławianka Mława

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.46

Bełchatów

1.88

Mławianka Mława

1.46

Bełchatów creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.82

creates per match

1.46

1.45

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Bełchatów

1.82

Mławianka Mława

1.46

allows per match

Bełchatów

1.45

Mławianka Mława

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Mławianka Mława →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw

70%

Bełchatów or Mławianka Mława

78%

Draw or Mławianka Mława

53%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+

26%

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals

85%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

56%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

29%

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals

77%

Mławianka Mława 2+ goals

43%

Mławianka Mława 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

61%

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bełchatów scores more

47%

level

22%

Mławianka Mława scores more

30%

Bełchatów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff