Lyubomyr Stavyshche vs Bukovyna

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

CANC

14:00

Bukovyna

5/21/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 30Stadion Kolos Stavyshche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche17%

×Draw19%

Bukovyna65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyubomyr StavyshcheExpected goals in this matchBukovyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

2.38

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

1.12

Bukovyna

2.38

Bukovyna creates 112% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

0.63

creates per match

1.13

3.63

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

0.63

Bukovyna

1.13

allows per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

3.63

Bukovyna

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyubomyr Stavyshche ↓

Bukovyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lyubomyr Stavyshche or draw

35%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche or Bukovyna

81%

Draw or Bukovyna

83%

Winning margin

Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+

6%

Bukovyna wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals

67%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals

31%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals

10%

Bukovyna 1+ goals

91%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

68%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)

20%

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyubomyr Stavyshche at home — creates 0.63, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

Bukovyna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.63 + Bukovyna defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bukovyna attack 1.13 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more

17%

level

19%

Bukovyna scores more

65%

Bukovyna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff