Bukovyna 4–1 Lyubomyr Stavyshche: Result & Stats

Bukovyna

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

V. Palagnyuk 45+1' (pen), 30'

A. Ella 26'

O. Loginov 20'

M. Komisar 65'

10/23/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 15Stadion Bukovyna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bukovyna58%

×Draw25%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BukovynaExpected goals in this matchLyubomyr Stavyshche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.73

Bukovyna

1.59

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

0.73

Bukovyna creates 118% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

1.19

creates per match

0.27

1.19

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bukovyna

1.19

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

0.27

allows per match

Bukovyna

1.19

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukovyna ↓

Lyubomyr Stavyshche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bukovyna or draw

83%

Bukovyna or Lyubomyr Stavyshche

75%

Draw or Lyubomyr Stavyshche

42%

Winning margin

Bukovyna wins by 2+

31%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bukovyna 1+ goals

80%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

47%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

21%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals

52%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals

17%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

77%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukovyna at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche away — creates 0.27, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukovyna attack 1.19 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.27 + Bukovyna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bukovyna scores more

58%

level

25%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more

17%

Bukovyna at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

O. Loginov

26'

A. Ella

30'

V. Palagnyuk

36'

B. Kozyi← A. Marchenko

45+1'

V. PalagnyukPenalty

46'

I. Kravchenko← D. Bondar

46'

L. Nadiradze← I. Tymoshenko

60'

A. Kyyanytsya← D. Zhdanov

65'

M. Komisar

85'

A. Yurchenko← Y. Nikolashyn

Bukovyna

Lyubomyr

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Y. Kovalenko

Manager: V. Lazorenko

36'▲B. Kozyi←▼A. Marchenko

46'▲I. Kravchenko←▼D. Bondar

46'▲L. Nadiradze←▼I. Tymoshenko

60'▲A. Kyyanytsya←▼D. Zhdanov

85'▲A. Yurchenko←▼Y. Nikolashyn

Lyubomyr Stavyshche substitutes

KozyiKravchenkoNadiradzeKyyanytsyaYurchenko

Druha Liga - Group A: Bukovyna 4–1 Lyubomyr Stavyshche

Bukovyna beat Lyubomyr Stavyshche 4-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 23, 2021.

Goals: O. Loginov (20'), A. Ella (26'), V. Palagnyuk (30', 45+1' pen), M. Komisar (65').

The match was played at Stadion Bukovyna in Chernivtsi.

Bukovyna vs Lyubomyr Stavyshche — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Druha Liga - Group A: Bukovyna 4–1 Lyubomyr Stavyshche