Lysekloster 4–0 Bjarg: Result & Stats

Lysekloster

FT

4 – 0

Bjarg

10/30/2021

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 13Lysekloster Framo Idrettsplass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lysekloster27%

×Draw19%

Bjarg54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyseklosterExpected goals in this matchBjarg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.48

Lysekloster

1.73

Bjarg

2.48

Bjarg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

2.95

2.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lysekloster

2.00

Bjarg

2.95

allows per match

Lysekloster

2.00

Bjarg

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Bjarg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lysekloster ↓

Bjarg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Lysekloster or draw

46%

Lysekloster or Bjarg

81%

Draw or Bjarg

73%

Winning margin

Lysekloster wins by 2+

13%

Bjarg wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Lysekloster 1+ goals

82%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

52%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

25%

Bjarg 1+ goals

92%

Bjarg 2+ goals

70%

Bjarg 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

33%

Bjarg (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lysekloster at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Bjarg away — creates 2.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lysekloster attack 2.00 + Bjarg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bjarg attack 2.95 + Lysekloster defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lysekloster scores more

27%

level

19%

Bjarg scores more

54%

Bjarg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff