Bjarg 2–2 Lysekloster: Result & Stats

Bjarg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lysekloster

S. Hopsdal 90'

C. Dahl 13'

E. Brattreit 74'

J. Bolso 32'

5/2/2026

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 5Stavollen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bjarg44%

×Draw21%

Lysekloster35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BjargExpected goals in this matchLysekloster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.79

Bjarg

2.04

Lysekloster

1.79

Bjarg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

2.17

creates per match

1.59

2.00

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Bjarg

2.17

Lysekloster

1.59

allows per match

Bjarg

2.00

Lysekloster

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bjarg+0.00on par

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjarg ↓

Lysekloster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bjarg or draw

65%

Bjarg or Lysekloster

79%

Draw or Lysekloster

56%

Winning margin

Bjarg wins by 2+

25%

Lysekloster wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bjarg 1+ goals

87%

Bjarg 2+ goals

60%

Bjarg 3+ goals

33%

Lysekloster 1+ goals

83%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

53%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bjarg (draw refunded)

56%

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjarg at home — creates 2.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjarg attack 2.17 + Lysekloster defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lysekloster attack 1.59 + Bjarg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bjarg scores more

44%

level

21%

Lysekloster scores more

35%

Bjarg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

30'

32'

42'

46'

52'

63'

H. Mildestveit← T. Steensen

63'

K. Stephensen← J. Jorgensen

71'

M. Ali Alzubi← C. Dahl

72'

S. Olsnes← A. Hanssen

74'

E. Brattreit

78'

V. Nakken← B. Mvuka

83'

E. Johnsen← E. Brattreit

84'

S. Stronstad-Loseth← V. Halset

90+6'

T. V. Ovreberg

90+6'

T. V. Ovreberg

90'

J. Nordvold Lunde← J. Edvardsen

90'

S. Vik← J. Bolso

90'

S. Hopsdal

Bjarg

Lysekloster

1

Bergslid

3

Ankerstje

5

Valland

7

▼

30

6

8

10

11

⚽

▼

Brattreit

32

⚽

▼

Bolso

33

▼

Mvuka

1

Johnsen

2

▼

4

13

14

6

▼

Halset

7

⚽

Hopsdal

25

▼

Hanssen

8

▼

Jorgensen

10

⚽

▼

Dahl

18

Ahlander

63'▲H. Mildestveit←▼T. Steensen

63'▲K. Stephensen←▼J. Jorgensen

71'▲M. Ali Alzubi←▼C. Dahl

72'▲S. Olsnes←▼A. Hanssen

84'▲S. Stronstad-Loseth←▼V. Halset

Bjarg substitutes

12Mossestad5Mildestveit17Alzubi19Stronstad-Loseth21Olsnes27Vikane29Stephensen

78'▲V. Nakken←▼B. Mvuka

83'▲E. Johnsen←▼E. Brattreit

90'▲J. Nordvold Lunde←▼J. Edvardsen

90'▲S. Vik←▼J. Bolso

Lysekloster substitutes

25Lie9Johnsen17Nakken18Lunde19Bonabandi23Fagerlie24Vik

Match Recap: Bjarg vs Lysekloster

Bjarg and Lysekloster drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on May 2, 2026.

Goals: C. Dahl (13'), J. Bolso (32'), E. Brattreit (74'), S. Hopsdal (90').

The match was played at Stavollen kunstgress.

Bjarg vs Lysekloster — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bjarg vs Lysekloster