Lys Sassandra 1–2 Korhogo: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lys Sassandra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Korhogo

3/12/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lys Sassandra33%

×Draw30%

Korhogo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lys SassandraExpected goals in this matchKorhogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.06

Lys Sassandra

0.98

Korhogo

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

0.84

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Lys Sassandra

0.84

Korhogo

1.05

allows per match

Lys Sassandra

1.07

Korhogo

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Korhogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lys Sassandra ↓

Korhogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lys Sassandra or draw

63%

Lys Sassandra or Korhogo

70%

Draw or Korhogo

67%

Winning margin

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

12%

Korhogo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

62%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

26%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

8%

Korhogo 1+ goals

65%

Korhogo 2+ goals

29%

Korhogo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

47%

Korhogo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lys Sassandra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

Korhogo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lys Sassandra attack 0.84 + Korhogo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Korhogo attack 1.05 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lys Sassandra scores more

33%

level

30%

Korhogo scores more

37%

Korhogo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Korhogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff