Korhogo 0–0 Lys Sassandra: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Korhogo

FT

0 – 0

Lys Sassandra

11/10/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade municipal de Korhogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Korhogo31%

×Draw29%

Lys Sassandra40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KorhogoExpected goals in this matchLys Sassandra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.20

Korhogo

1.02

Lys Sassandra

1.20

Lys Sassandra creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 59 away

0.97

creates per match

0.92

1.47

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Korhogo

0.97

Lys Sassandra

0.92

allows per match

Korhogo

1.47

Lys Sassandra

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korhogo+0.00on par

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korhogo ↓

Lys Sassandra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Korhogo or draw

60%

Korhogo or Lys Sassandra

71%

Draw or Lys Sassandra

69%

Winning margin

Korhogo wins by 2+

12%

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Korhogo 1+ goals

64%

Korhogo 2+ goals

27%

Korhogo 3+ goals

8%

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

70%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

34%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Korhogo (draw refunded)

44%

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korhogo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korhogo attack 0.97 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + Korhogo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Korhogo scores more

31%

level

29%

Lys Sassandra scores more

40%

Lys Sassandra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lys Sassandra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff