Lys Sassandra 0–1 AFAD: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lys Sassandra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AFAD

4/1/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lys Sassandra27%

×Draw31%

AFAD42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lys SassandraExpected goals in this matchAFAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.10

Lys Sassandra

0.82

AFAD

1.10

AFAD creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

0.84

creates per match

1.14

1.07

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Lys Sassandra

0.84

AFAD

1.14

allows per match

Lys Sassandra

1.07

AFAD

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

AFAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lys Sassandra ↓

AFAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lys Sassandra or draw

58%

Lys Sassandra or AFAD

69%

Draw or AFAD

73%

Winning margin

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

9%

AFAD wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

56%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

20%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

5%

AFAD 1+ goals

67%

AFAD 2+ goals

30%

AFAD 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

39%

AFAD (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lys Sassandra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

AFAD away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lys Sassandra attack 0.84 + AFAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

AFAD attack 1.14 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lys Sassandra scores more

27%

level

31%

AFAD scores more

42%

AFAD at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff