Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFAD vs Lys Sassandra — Ligue 1 2019

AFAD
AFAD
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
4/20/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

AFAD40%
×Draw31%
Lys Sassandra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFAD
1.10
Lys Sassandra
0.90

AFAD creates 22% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

creates per match

AFAD
1.12
Lys Sassandra
0.92

allows per match

AFAD
0.88
Lys Sassandra
1.08

finishing

AFAD+0.00on par
Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFAD ↓

Lys Sassandra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AFAD or draw
71%
AFAD or Lys Sassandra
69%
Draw or Lys Sassandra
60%

Winning margin

AFAD wins by 2+
16%
Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AFAD 1+ goals
67%
AFAD 2+ goals
30%
AFAD 3+ goals
10%
Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
59%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
23%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFAD (draw refunded)
58%
Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFAD at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFAD attack 1.12 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + AFAD defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AFAD scores more
40%
level
31%
Lys Sassandra scores more
29%

AFAD at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFAD vs Lys Sassandra

AFAD beat Lys Sassandra 2-0 in Ligue 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.