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Lys Sassandra vs Abengourou — Ligue 1 2019

Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Abengourou
Abengourou
12/19/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lys Sassandra42%
×Draw30%
Abengourou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lys Sassandra
1.17
Abengourou
0.90

Lys Sassandra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Lys Sassandra
0.84
Abengourou
0.72

allows per match

Lys Sassandra
1.07
Abengourou
1.49

finishing

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par
Abengourou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lys Sassandra ↓

Abengourou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lys Sassandra or draw
72%
Lys Sassandra or Abengourou
70%
Draw or Abengourou
58%

Winning margin

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
18%
Abengourou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
69%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
33%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
11%
Abengourou 1+ goals
59%
Abengourou 2+ goals
23%
Abengourou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
60%
Abengourou (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lys Sassandra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

Abengourou away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lys Sassandra attack 0.84 + Abengourou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.17

Abengourou attack 0.72 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lys Sassandra scores more
42%
level
30%
Abengourou scores more
28%

Lys Sassandra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lys Sassandra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lys Sassandra vs Abengourou

Lys Sassandra and Abengourou drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on December 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.