Abengourou 1–1 Lys Sassandra: Result & Stats

Abengourou

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lys Sassandra

11/18/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Abengourou33%

×Draw32%

Lys Sassandra35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbengourouExpected goals in this matchLys Sassandra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.98

Abengourou

0.95

Lys Sassandra

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

0.82

creates per match

0.92

1.03

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Abengourou

0.82

Lys Sassandra

0.92

allows per match

Abengourou

1.03

Lys Sassandra

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abengourou+0.00on par

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abengourou ↓

Lys Sassandra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Abengourou or draw

65%

Abengourou or Lys Sassandra

68%

Draw or Lys Sassandra

67%

Winning margin

Abengourou wins by 2+

12%

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Abengourou 1+ goals

61%

Abengourou 2+ goals

25%

Abengourou 3+ goals

7%

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

62%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

26%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Abengourou (draw refunded)

49%

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abengourou at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abengourou attack 0.82 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + Abengourou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Abengourou scores more

33%

level

32%

Lys Sassandra scores more

35%

Lys Sassandra at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Lys Sassandra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff