Lyon W 4–0 FC Fleury 91 W: Result & Stats

Lyon W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Fleury 91 W

M. Dumornay 86'

S. Däbritz 83', 10'

G. Mbock Bathy 13'

3/15/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 17Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Lyon W78%

×Draw14%

FC Fleury 91 W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyon WExpected goals in this matchFC Fleury 91 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

0.80

Lyon W

2.79

FC Fleury 91 W

0.80

Lyon W creates 249% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 84 away

4.02

creates per match

1.33

0.26

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Lyon W

4.02

FC Fleury 91 W

1.33

allows per match

Lyon W

0.26

FC Fleury 91 W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

FC Fleury 91 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw

92%

Lyon W or FC Fleury 91 W

86%

Draw or FC Fleury 91 W

22%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+

57%

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals

94%

Lyon W 2+ goals

76%

Lyon W 3+ goals

52%

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals

55%

FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals

19%

FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)

90%

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 4.02, concedes 0.26 · 93 matches

FC Fleury 91 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 4.02 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.79

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.33 + Lyon W defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Lyon W scores more

78%

level

14%

FC Fleury 91 W scores more

8%

Lyon W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Däbritz

Lyon W · M

10.0

Match Events

10'

S. Däbritz

13'

G. Mbock Bathy↳ S. Bacha

27'

Mariam Diakité

46'

V. Bècho← E. Le Sommer

46'

M. Dumornay← D. Marozsán

50'

Melchie Dumornay

55'

Selma Bacha

59'

B. Louis← E. Badu

59'

C. Swaby← M. Diakité

68'

P. Morroni← S. Bacha

68'

A. Sombath← G. Mbock Bathy

68'

D. Egurrola← K. Diani

74'

R. Kouassi← E. Kamczyk

80'

Charlotte Fernandes

83'

S. Däbritz

86'

M. Dumornay↳ S. Däbritz

87'

A. Fontaine← D. Grabowska

87'

B. Ngaseh Mbele← A. Maoulida

90+3'

Danielle van de Donk

90+4'

Bernadette Ngaseh Mbele

90+3'

Aïrine Fontaine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyonFC

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots3

3Corners3

15Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots3

10On Target2

4Off Target1

6Blocked0

9Inside Box1

11Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

509Total Passes240

436Accurate Passes153

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2