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FC Fleury 91 W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Lyon W
Lyon W
E. Kamczyk 46', 1'
K. Diani 80'
V. Gilles 75'
L. Horan 57', 32' (pen)
M. Dumornay 43', 22'
9/20/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 1Stade Robert Bobin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

FC Fleury 91 W15%
×Draw18%
Lyon W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fleury 91 W
1.02
Lyon W
2.40

Lyon W creates 135% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

creates per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.56
Lyon W
3.55

allows per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.25
Lyon W
0.49

finishing

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par
Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fleury 91 W ↓

Lyon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Fleury 91 W or draw
32%
FC Fleury 91 W or Lyon W
82%
Draw or Lyon W
85%

Winning margin

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
5%
Lyon W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
64%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
27%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
8%
Lyon W 1+ goals
91%
Lyon W 2+ goals
69%
Lyon W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
18%
Lyon W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fleury 91 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.56 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.02

Lyon W attack 3.55 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FC Fleury 91 W scores more
15%
level
18%
Lyon W scores more
68%

Lyon W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. DumornayLyon WLyon W · F
9.3

Match Events

1'
E. Kamczyk↳ F. Robert
14'
Dzsenifer Marozsán
22'
M. Dumornay
32'
L. HoranPenalty
43'
M. Dumornay↳ D. Egurrola
46'
E. Kamczyk↳ A. Traoré
57'
L. Horan↳ D. Marozsán
66'
A. Fontaine← B. Louis
67'
E. Le Sommer← T. Chawinga
67'
S. Däbritz← D. van de Donk
69'
Aissata Traoré
75'
V. Gilles↳ D. Marozsán
76'
V. Bècho← D. Marozsán
78'
I. Konan← F. Robert
79'
J. Mazo← S. Kassi
80'
K. Diani↳ D. Egurrola
87'
K. Sylla← S. Svava
87'
A. Sombath← L. Horan
88'
N. Ben Khaled← A. Traoré

Possession

28%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

43%FC

Statistics

FCLyon
Overview
28%Possession72%
8Total Shots27
2Corners9
6Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots27
6On Target11
2Off Target8
0Blocked8
4Inside Box23
4Outside Box4
Passing
28%Possession72%
247Total Passes633
165Accurate Passes566
67%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Fleury 91 W vs Lyon W

Lyon W beat FC Fleury 91 W 6-2 in Feminine Division 1 on September 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Kamczyk (1', 46'), M. Dumornay (22', 43'), L. Horan (32' pen, 57'), V. Gilles (75'), K. Diani (80').

Lyon W controlled possession (72%) and registered 27 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Robert Bobin in Bondoufle.