Lyon W 2–1 Bayern Munich W: Result & Stats

Lyon W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayern Munich W

A. Majri 59'

N. Parris 41'

C. Simon 64'

8/22/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · Quarter-finalsSan Mamés Barria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lyon W56%

×Draw20%

Bayern Munich W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyon WExpected goals in this matchBayern Munich W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.45

Lyon W

2.29

Bayern Munich W

1.45

Lyon W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

2.87

creates per match

1.96

0.93

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lyon W

2.87

Bayern Munich W

1.96

allows per match

Lyon W

0.93

Bayern Munich W

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Bayern Munich W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw

76%

Lyon W or Bayern Munich W

80%

Draw or Bayern Munich W

44%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+

35%

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals

90%

Lyon W 2+ goals

66%

Lyon W 3+ goals

40%

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

77%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

42%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)

70%

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Bayern Munich W away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 2.87 + Bayern Munich W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.29

Bayern Munich W attack 1.96 + Lyon W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lyon W scores more

56%

level

20%

Bayern Munich W scores more

24%

Lyon W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

L. Benkarth

41'

N. Parris↳ E. Le Sommer

46'

S. Gunnarsdóttir← A. Henry

55'

D. Marozsan

59'

A. Majri

60'

V. Asseyi← L. Beerensteyn

60'

J. Damnjanović← L. Schüller

64'

J. Taylor← E. Le Sommer

64'

S. Karchaoui← N. Parris

64'

C. Simon

72'

S. Karchaoui

74'

S. Laudehr← J. Damnjanović

80'

A. Ilestedt← H. Glas

80'

S. Zadrazil← S. Lohmann

84'

S. Bacha← D. Marozsán

89'

M. Hegering

90+3'

L. Dallmann

Lyon

Bayern

1

Benkarth

8

Hegering

4

Demann

30

⚽

Simon

5

▼

Glas

12

▼

Lohmann

16

Magull

10

Dallmann

6

▼

Beerenste

7

Gwinn

11

▼

16

3

2

21

6

▼

Henry

5

Kumagai

10

▼

Marozsán

7

⚽

Majri

9

A

▼

Sommer

17

⚽

▼

Parris

20

Cascarino

Manager: J. Vasseur

46'▲S. Gunnarsdóttir←▼A. Henry

64'▲J. Taylor←▼E. Le Sommer

64'▲S. Karchaoui←▼N. Parris

84'▲S. Bacha←▼D. Marozsán

Lyon W substitutes

8Gunnarsdóttir24Taylor26Karchaoui4Bacha12Carpenter28Malard23Cayman40Talaslahti11Sanden15Greenwood

Manager: J. Scheuer

60'▲V. Asseyi←▼L. Beerensteyn

60'▲J. Damnjanović←▼L. Schüller

74'▲S. Laudehr←▼J. Damnjanović

80'▲A. Ilestedt←▼H. Glas

80'▲S. Zadrazil←▼S. Lohmann

Bayern Munich W substitutes

18Asseyi9Damnjanović21Laudehr14Ilestedt25Zadrazil2Donhauser27Corley33Schlüter19Wenninger22Grohs3Boye-Sørensen

Match Recap: Lyon W vs Bayern Munich W

Lyon W beat Bayern Munich W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 22, 2020.

Goals: N. Parris (41'), A. Majri (59'), C. Simon (64').

The match was played at San Mamés Barria in Bilbao.

Lyon W vs Bayern Munich W — UEFA Champions League Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lyon W vs Bayern Munich W