Bayern Munich W 1–0 Lyon W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lyon W

S. Kumagai 69'

11/17/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 4FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bayern Munich W35%

×Draw23%

Lyon W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchLyon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.73

Bayern Munich W

1.57

Lyon W

1.73

Lyon W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

2.30

creates per match

2.68

0.78

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Lyon W

2.68

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Lyon W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Lyon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

58%

Bayern Munich W or Lyon W

77%

Draw or Lyon W

65%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

17%

Lyon W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

79%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

46%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

21%

Lyon W 1+ goals

82%

Lyon W 2+ goals

52%

Lyon W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

46%

Lyon W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Lyon W away — creates 2.68, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Lyon W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lyon W attack 2.68 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

35%

level

23%

Lyon W scores more

42%

Lyon W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

D. Egurrola

37'

D. Cascarino← Damaris Egurrola

67'

J. Damnjanović← L. Dallmann

67'

M. Malard← A. Hegerberg

69'

76'

77'

77'

77'

E. Laurent← J. Cayman

81'

G. Viggósdóttir← L. Magull

81'

L. Beerensteyn← C. Simon

Bayern

Lyon

1

Endler

23

▼

29

21

5

12

4

6

11

▼

Egurrola

13

▼

Macário

14

▼

Hegerberg

1

Benkarth

3

⚽

Kumagai

19

Wenninger

30

A

▼

Simon

18

▼

Asseyi

16

▼

Magull

25

Zadrazil

10

▼

7

17

11

Manager: J. Scheuer

67'▲J. Damnjanović←▼L. Dallmann

77'▲H. Glas←▼V. Asseyi

81'▲G. Viggósdóttir←▼L. Magull

81'▲L. Beerensteyn←▼C. Simon

Bayern Munich W substitutes

9Damnjanović5Glas14Viggósdóttir6Beerensteyn33Leitzig8Rall27Hegering4Demann23Vilhjálmsdóttir80Jakobsson22Grohs

Manager: S. Bompastor

37'▲D. Cascarino←▼Damaris Egurrola

67'▲M. Malard←▼A. Hegerberg

77'▲S. Bruun←▼C. Macário

77'▲E. Laurent←▼J. Cayman

Lyon W substitutes

20Cascarino28Malard24Bruun19Laurent22Julini40Holmgren18Sombath25Benyahia17Donk30Alyssia

UEFA Champions League Women: Bayern Munich W 1–0 Lyon W

Bayern Munich W beat Lyon W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 17, 2021.

Goals: S. Kumagai (69').

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.

Bayern Munich W vs Lyon W — UEFA Champions League Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women: Bayern Munich W 1–0 Lyon W