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Lyon vs Marseille — Ligue 1 2018

Lyon
Lyon
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Marseille
Marseille
9/22/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lyon45%
×Draw24%
Marseille32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon
1.71
Marseille
1.40

Lyon creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lyon
1.84
Marseille
1.57

allows per match

Lyon
1.23
Marseille
1.58

finishing

Lyon-0.19scores less
Marseille-0.02on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lyon or draw
68%
Lyon or Marseille
76%
Draw or Marseille
55%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+
24%
Marseille wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals
82%
Lyon 2+ goals
51%
Lyon 3+ goals
24%
Marseille 1+ goals
75%
Marseille 2+ goals
41%
Marseille 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)
59%
Marseille (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.23 · 23 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 1.84 + Marseille defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Marseille attack 1.57 + Lyon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lyon scores more
45%
level
24%
Marseille scores more
32%

Lyon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lyon vs Marseille

Marseille beat Lyon 3-2 in Ligue 1 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu.