Lyon 1–2 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lyon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Clermont Foot

F. Ogier 52' (OG)

Y. Magnin 35'

M. Cham 10'

10/22/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 9Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Lyon49%

×Draw23%

Clermont Foot28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyonExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.31

Lyon

1.79

Clermont Foot

1.31

Lyon creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 9 away

2.01

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Lyon

2.01

Clermont Foot

1.40

allows per match

Lyon

1.22

Clermont Foot

1.57

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Lyon-0.10scores less

Clermont Foot+0.04on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lyon or draw

72%

Lyon or Clermont Foot

77%

Draw or Clermont Foot

51%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+

27%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals

83%

Lyon 2+ goals

53%

Lyon 3+ goals

26%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

73%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

38%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)

63%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 35 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 2.01 + Clermont Foot defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Clermont Foot attack 1.40 + Lyon defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lyon scores more

49%

level

23%

Clermont Foot scores more

28%

Lyon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

M. Diaw

Clermont Foot · G

8.2

Match Events

10'

M. Cham↳ S. Nicholson

19'

Dejan Lovren

22'

Johan Gastien

32'

Henrique

35'

Y. Magnin↳ M. Caufriez

45+2'

Florent Ogier

46'

M. Diawara← A. Maitland-Niles

46'

C. Tolisso← R. Cherki

46'

E. Nuamah← P. Akouokou

52'

F. OgierOwn goal

67'

Corentin Tolisso

68'

Mama Baldé← Jeffinho

68'

H. Keïta← Y. Magnin

69'

E. Rashani← M. Gonalons

81'

B. Boutobba← M. Cham

83'

S. Kumbedi← Henrique

83'

A. Seidu← M. Caufriez

83'

M. Zeffane← J. Allevinah

86'

90+4'

90+7'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyonClermont

Overview

63%Possession37%

26Total Shots12

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.01

10Corners3

16Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots12

7On Target5

11Off Target1

8Blocked6

15Inside Box5

11Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

595Total Passes347

496Accurate Passes263

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lyon vs Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Lyon 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 22, 2023.

Goals: M. Cham (10'), Y. Magnin (35'), F. Ogier (52' o.g.).

Lyon controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 12.

The match was played at Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu.

Lyon vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lyon vs Clermont Foot