Clermont Foot 1–2 Lyon: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lyon

M. Bayo 59'

H. Aouar 49'

M. Dembélé 26'

5/21/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 38Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Clermont Foot40%

×Draw26%

Lyon33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchLyon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Clermont Foot

1.38

Lyon

1.23

Clermont Foot creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.35

creates per match

1.37

1.09

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.35

Lyon

1.37

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.09

Lyon

1.40

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Clermont Foot-0.44scores less

Lyon+0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Lyon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

67%

Clermont Foot or Lyon

74%

Draw or Lyon

60%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

19%

Lyon wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

75%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

40%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

16%

Lyon 1+ goals

71%

Lyon 2+ goals

35%

Lyon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

55%

Lyon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Lyon away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.35 + Lyon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lyon attack 1.37 + Clermont Foot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

40%

level

26%

Lyon scores more

33%

Clermont Foot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Gastien

Clermont Foot · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

26'

39'

49'

59'

62'

Oriol Busquets← S. Khaoui

62'

J. Allevinah← J. Dossou

72'

K. Toko-Ekambi← B. Barcola

72'

T. Ndombèlé← J. Reine-Adélaïde

77'

A. Mendy← V. NSimba

77'

E. Rashani← L. Da Cunha

80'

Emerson← Henrique

80'

R. Faivre← H. Aouar

87'

P. Hamel← M. Bayo

90'

Elbasan Rashani

90+5'

Moussa Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontLyon

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots21

10Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots21

3On Target5

7Off Target6

8Blocked10

15Inside Box17

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

402Total Passes508

345Accurate Passes443

86%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Lyon

Lyon beat Clermont Foot 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: M. Dembélé (26'), H. Aouar (49'), M. Bayo (59').

Lyon controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.

Clermont Foot vs Lyon — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Lyon