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Lyngby vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2018

Lyngby
Lyngby
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
7/22/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 1Lyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Lyngby28%
×Draw24%
FC Copenhagen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyngby
1.20
FC Copenhagen
1.64

FC Copenhagen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 132 away

creates per match

Lyngby
1.14
FC Copenhagen
1.83

allows per match

Lyngby
1.44
FC Copenhagen
1.26

finishing

Lyngby+0.00on par
FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw
52%
Lyngby or FC Copenhagen
76%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
72%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+
11%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals
70%
Lyngby 2+ goals
34%
Lyngby 3+ goals
12%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
81%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
49%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)
37%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.26 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.14 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

FC Copenhagen attack 1.83 + Lyngby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lyngby scores more
28%
level
24%
FC Copenhagen scores more
48%

FC Copenhagen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Lyngby 0–2 FC Copenhagen

FC Copenhagen beat Lyngby 2-0 in Superliga on July 22, 2024.

The match was played at Lyngby Stadion in Lyngby.