FC Copenhagen 3–0 Lyngby: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lyngby

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3FC Kobenhavns Traeningsanlaeg n.10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Copenhagen50%

×Draw20%

Lyngby29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.72

FC Copenhagen

2.28

Lyngby

1.72

FC Copenhagen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.78

creates per match

2.00

1.44

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.78

Lyngby

2.00

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.44

Lyngby

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

71%

FC Copenhagen or Lyngby

80%

Draw or Lyngby

50%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

30%

Lyngby wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

90%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

66%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

39%

Lyngby 1+ goals

82%

Lyngby 2+ goals

51%

Lyngby 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

63%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Lyngby away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.78 + Lyngby defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.28

Lyngby attack 2.00 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

50%

level

20%

Lyngby scores more

29%

FC Copenhagen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff