Lyngby 2–2 Aalborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Lyngby

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Aalborg

F. Gytkjær 89' (pen)

S. Magnússon 8'

M. Widell 55'

J. Iredale 52'

11/10/2024

Superliga · Round 15Lyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lyngby48%

×Draw25%

Aalborg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyngbyExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.18

Lyngby

1.62

Aalborg

1.18

Lyngby creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.19

creates per match

0.82

1.53

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Lyngby

1.19

Aalborg

0.82

allows per match

Lyngby

1.53

Aalborg

2.05

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Lyngby-0.19scores less

Aalborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw

72%

Lyngby or Aalborg

75%

Draw or Aalborg

52%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+

25%

Aalborg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals

80%

Lyngby 2+ goals

48%

Lyngby 3+ goals

22%

Aalborg 1+ goals

69%

Aalborg 2+ goals

33%

Aalborg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)

63%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 10 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.05 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.19 + Aalborg defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.62

Aalborg attack 0.82 + Lyngby defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lyngby scores more

48%

level

25%

Aalborg scores more

28%

Lyngby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lyngby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Magnússon

Lyngby · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

S. Magnússon

14'

Melker Widell

26'

Andreas Bruus

52'

J. Iredale↳ M. Widell

55'

M. Widell↳ O. Ross

60'

M. Opoku← M. Warming

69'

M. Hebo← C. Winther

69'

M. Rømer← L. Sandgrav

69'

F. Gytkjær← J. Amon

69'

M. Jiménez← M. Bomholt

72'

Mylian Jimenez

76'

Michael Opoku

77'

A. Jasson← J. Iredale

80'

Malik Abubakari

83'

B. Rolland← B. Hämäläinen

83'

K. John← O. Ross

87'

Sævar Atli MagnússonPenalty confirmed

88'

Melker Widell

88'

Melker Widell

88'

Melker WidellCard upgrade

89'

F. GytkjærPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyngbyAalborg

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots12

2.29Expected Goals (xG)1.26

1Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked5

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

499Total Passes351

414Accurate Passes279

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

Superliga: Lyngby 2–2 Aalborg

Lyngby and Aalborg drew 2-2 in Superliga on November 10, 2024.

Goals: S. Magnússon (8'), J. Iredale (52'), M. Widell (55'), F. Gytkjær (89' pen).

Lyngby controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Lyngby Stadion in Lyngby.

Lyngby vs Aalborg — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: Lyngby 2–2 Aalborg