Aalborg 2–2 Lyngby: Result & Stats | Superliga

Aalborg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Lyngby

M. Bomholt 24'

K. Jørgensen 12' (pen)

J. Amon 80'

S. Magnússon 23'

4/11/2025

Superliga · Relegation Round - 3Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Aalborg46%

×Draw25%

Lyngby29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalborgExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.19

Aalborg

1.55

Lyngby

1.19

Aalborg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 80 away

1.28

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Aalborg

1.28

Lyngby

0.94

allows per match

Aalborg

1.44

Lyngby

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par

Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw

71%

Aalborg or Lyngby

75%

Draw or Lyngby

54%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+

23%

Lyngby wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals

79%

Aalborg 2+ goals

46%

Aalborg 3+ goals

20%

Lyngby 1+ goals

70%

Lyngby 2+ goals

33%

Lyngby 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)

61%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 98 matches

Lyngby away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.82 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 1.28 + Lyngby defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lyngby attack 0.94 + Aalborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aalborg scores more

46%

level

25%

Lyngby scores more

29%

Aalborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Jørgensen

Aalborg · D

8.2

Match Events

12'

K. JørgensenPenalty

23'

S. Magnússon↳ L. Klassen

24'

M. Bomholt↳ M. Jørgensen

71'

A. Jasson← K. Davidsen

71'

M. Jiménez← M. Bomholt

71'

J. Amon← M. Opoku

78'

N. Helenius← I. Hansen-Aarøen

78'

O. Ross← K. John

80'

J. Amon↳ L. Sandgrav

81'

Jesper Cornelius

81'

A. Andersson← O. Buur

84'

F. Gytkjær← J. Cornelius

84'

M. Jensen← L. Sandgrav

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalborgLyngby

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots13

4Corners4

5Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target6

6Off Target4

0Blocked3

10Inside Box12

2Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

398Total Passes626

336Accurate Passes558

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1