Lyngby 0–2 Aalborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Lyngby

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aalborg

Y. Bakiz 60', 42'

10/14/2022

Superliga · Round 13Lyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Lyngby36%

×Draw26%

Aalborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyngbyExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.36

Lyngby

1.30

Aalborg

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 97 away

1.14

creates per match

1.30

1.43

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lyngby

1.14

Aalborg

1.30

allows per match

Lyngby

1.43

Aalborg

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyngby+0.00on par

Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw

62%

Lyngby or Aalborg

74%

Draw or Aalborg

64%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+

16%

Aalborg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals

73%

Lyngby 2+ goals

37%

Lyngby 3+ goals

14%

Aalborg 1+ goals

74%

Aalborg 2+ goals

39%

Aalborg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)

48%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.14 + Aalborg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Aalborg attack 1.30 + Lyngby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lyngby scores more

36%

level

26%

Aalborg scores more

38%

Aalborg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Y. Bakiz

Aalborg · F

8.7

Match Events

42'

Y. Bakiz↳ L. Prip

55'

Magnus Westergaard

60'

Y. Bakiz↳ Allan Sousa

61'

S. Magnússon← M. Kaastrup

61'

C. Winther← T. Chukwuani

62'

A. Poulsen← Allan Sousa

63'

M. Ramkilde← J. Ahlmann

67'

Pedro Ferreira

71'

J. Pedersen← L. Prip

74'

T. Letschert← P. Gregor

76'

Sævar Atli Magnússon

78'

Timo Letschert

79'

M. Højholt← Pedro Ferreira

79'

O. Ross← L. Andersen

85'

R. Thellufsen← M. Rømer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyngbyAalborg

Overview

51%Possession49%

22Total Shots15

5Corners6

13Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots15

7On Target6

10Off Target6

5Blocked3

17Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

439Total Passes420

323Accurate Passes305

74%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1