Luzi 2008 3–1 Kastrioti Krujë: Result & Stats

Luzi 2008

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kastrioti Krujë

12/16/2023

1st Division · Round 16Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Luzi 200849%

×Draw26%

Kastrioti Krujë25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzi 2008Expected goals in this matchKastrioti Krujë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.01

Luzi 2008

1.52

Kastrioti Krujë

1.01

Luzi 2008 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 62 away

1.39

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Luzi 2008

1.39

Kastrioti Krujë

0.95

allows per match

Luzi 2008

1.07

Kastrioti Krujë

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzi 2008 ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luzi 2008 or draw

75%

Luzi 2008 or Kastrioti Krujë

74%

Draw or Kastrioti Krujë

51%

Winning margin

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

25%

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

78%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

45%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

20%

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals

64%

Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals

27%

Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

66%

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzi 2008 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzi 2008 attack 1.39 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luzi 2008 scores more

49%

level

26%

Kastrioti Krujë scores more

25%

Luzi 2008 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luzi 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff