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Kastrioti Krujë vs Luzi 2008 — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
4/6/20241st Division1st Division · Round 28Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë51%
×Draw25%
Luzi 200825%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.61
Luzi 2008
1.04

Kastrioti Krujë creates 55% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
Luzi 2008
0.97

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
Luzi 2008
1.71

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Luzi 2008 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
75%
Kastrioti Krujë or Luzi 2008
75%
Draw or Luzi 2008
49%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
27%
Luzi 2008 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
80%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
48%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
22%
Luzi 2008 1+ goals
65%
Luzi 2008 2+ goals
28%
Luzi 2008 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
67%
Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
51%
level
25%
Luzi 2008 scores more
25%

Kastrioti Krujë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Kastrioti Krujë 1–0 Luzi 2008

Kastrioti Krujë beat Luzi 2008 1-0 in 1st Division on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.