Luzi 2008 2–4 AF Elbasani: Result & Stats

Luzi 2008

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

AF Elbasani

11/6/2023

1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Luzi 200832%

×Draw26%

AF Elbasani43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzi 2008Expected goals in this matchAF Elbasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.48

Luzi 2008

1.23

AF Elbasani

1.48

AF Elbasani creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

1.88

1.07

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Luzi 2008

1.39

AF Elbasani

1.88

allows per match

Luzi 2008

1.07

AF Elbasani

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzi 2008 ↓

AF Elbasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Luzi 2008 or draw

57%

Luzi 2008 or AF Elbasani

74%

Draw or AF Elbasani

68%

Winning margin

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

13%

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

71%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

35%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

13%

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

77%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

43%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

42%

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzi 2008 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzi 2008 attack 1.39 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luzi 2008 scores more

32%

level

26%

AF Elbasani scores more

43%

AF Elbasani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff