AF Elbasani 2–1 Luzi 2008: Result & Stats

AF Elbasani

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Luzi 2008

3/3/2024

1st Division · Round 23Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani66%

×Draw19%

Luzi 200815%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AF ElbasaniExpected goals in this matchLuzi 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.93

AF Elbasani

2.21

Luzi 2008

0.93

AF Elbasani creates 138% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

2.71

creates per match

0.97

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

AF Elbasani

2.71

Luzi 2008

0.97

allows per match

AF Elbasani

0.88

Luzi 2008

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Luzi 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw

85%

AF Elbasani or Luzi 2008

81%

Draw or Luzi 2008

34%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

43%

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

89%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

65%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

38%

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

61%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

24%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

82%

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AF Elbasani scores more

66%

level

19%

Luzi 2008 scores more

15%

AF Elbasani at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff