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Luzern II vs FC Chiasso — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Luzern II
Luzern II
CANC
18:00
FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
4/19/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 28Sportanlage Hubelmatt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Luzern II41%
×Draw22%
FC Chiasso37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzern II
1.78
FC Chiasso
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 26 away

creates per match

Luzern II
2.38
FC Chiasso
1.65

allows per match

Luzern II
1.74
FC Chiasso
1.19

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par
FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

FC Chiasso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw
63%
Luzern II or FC Chiasso
78%
Draw or FC Chiasso
59%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+
21%
FC Chiasso wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals
83%
Luzern II 2+ goals
53%
Luzern II 3+ goals
26%
FC Chiasso 1+ goals
82%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
50%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)
52%
FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luzern II scores more
41%
level
22%
FC Chiasso scores more
37%

Luzern II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Luzern II host FC Chiasso

April 19, 2023: Luzern II take on FC Chiasso in 1. Liga Promotion. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Luzern II host FC Chiasso at Sportanlage Hubelmatt.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.