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FC Chiasso vs Luzern II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luzern II
Luzern II
M. Perissinotto 68'
S. Mattei 34'
10/15/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 11Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso49%
×Draw22%
Luzern II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
2.00
Luzern II
1.49

FC Chiasso creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 69 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Luzern II
2.04

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Luzern II
2.26

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Luzern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
71%
FC Chiasso or Luzern II
78%
Draw or Luzern II
51%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
28%
Luzern II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
86%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
59%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
32%
Luzern II 1+ goals
77%
Luzern II 2+ goals
44%
Luzern II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
63%
Luzern II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.00

Luzern II attack 2.04 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
49%
level
22%
Luzern II scores more
29%

FC Chiasso at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
S. Mattei
45'
N. Rupp
48'
D. Bezziccheri
54'
D. Stefanovic
58'
M. Perissinotto← M. Perissinotto
59'
L. Villiger← L. Villiger
66'
D. Martin← D. Martin
66'
I. Hegglin← I. Hegglin
68'
M. Perissinotto
77'
F. Shehu← F. Shehu
77'
A. Willimann← A. Willimann
78'
D. Bezziccheri← B. Mpon
88'
C. Manicone← S. Pani
88'
F. Ronchetti← F. Ronchetti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Chiasso vs Luzern II

FC Chiasso beat Luzern II 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 15, 2022.

Goals: S. Mattei (34'), M. Perissinotto (68').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.