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Luzern II vs Brühl — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Luzern II
Luzern II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brühl
Brühl
10/12/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 11Sportanlage Hubelmatt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Luzern II49%
×Draw21%
Brühl30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzern II
2.17
Brühl
1.67

Luzern II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 105 away

creates per match

Luzern II
2.38
Brühl
1.59

allows per match

Luzern II
1.74
Brühl
1.95

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par
Brühl+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

Brühl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw
70%
Luzern II or Brühl
79%
Draw or Brühl
51%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+
29%
Brühl wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals
89%
Luzern II 2+ goals
64%
Luzern II 3+ goals
36%
Brühl 1+ goals
81%
Brühl 2+ goals
50%
Brühl 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)
62%
Brühl (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Brühl away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.95 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + Brühl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.17

Brühl attack 1.59 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luzern II scores more
49%
level
21%
Brühl scores more
30%

Luzern II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luzern II vs Brühl

Luzern II and Brühl drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Hubelmatt in Luzern.