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Brühl vs Luzern II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Brühl
Brühl
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Luzern II
Luzern II
4/12/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 28Paul-Grüninger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Brühl45%
×Draw21%
Luzern II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brühl
2.06
Luzern II
1.79

Brühl creates 15% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 69 away

creates per match

Brühl
1.86
Luzern II
2.04

allows per match

Brühl
1.53
Luzern II
2.26

finishing

Brühl+0.00on par
Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brühl ↓

Luzern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Brühl or draw
66%
Brühl or Luzern II
79%
Draw or Luzern II
55%

Winning margin

Brühl wins by 2+
25%
Luzern II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brühl 1+ goals
87%
Brühl 2+ goals
61%
Brühl 3+ goals
34%
Luzern II 1+ goals
83%
Luzern II 2+ goals
53%
Luzern II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Brühl (draw refunded)
57%
Luzern II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brühl at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brühl attack 1.86 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.06

Luzern II attack 2.04 + Brühl defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brühl scores more
45%
level
21%
Luzern II scores more
34%

Brühl at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brühl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Brühl 2–5 Luzern II

Luzern II beat Brühl 5-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Paul-Grüninger-Stadion in St. Gallen.