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Luzern II vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Luzern II
Luzern II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Basel II
Basel II
8/6/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 1Sportanlage Hubelmatt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Luzern II46%
×Draw21%
Basel II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzern II
2.06
Basel II
1.72

Luzern II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 106 away

creates per match

Luzern II
2.38
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

Luzern II
1.74
Basel II
1.75

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw
67%
Luzern II or Basel II
79%
Draw or Basel II
54%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+
26%
Basel II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals
87%
Luzern II 2+ goals
61%
Luzern II 3+ goals
34%
Basel II 1+ goals
82%
Basel II 2+ goals
51%
Basel II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)
58%
Basel II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Basel II attack 1.70 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luzern II scores more
46%
level
21%
Basel II scores more
33%

Luzern II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Luzern II 1–1 Basel II

Luzern II and Basel II drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Hubelmatt in Luzern.