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Basel II vs Luzern II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Basel II
Basel II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Luzern II
Luzern II
9/25/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Nachwuchs-Campus Basel Platz 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Basel II43%
×Draw21%
Luzern II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel II
2.08
Luzern II
1.89

Basel II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Basel II
1.90
Luzern II
2.04

allows per match

Basel II
1.74
Luzern II
2.26

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par
Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Luzern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Basel II or draw
64%
Basel II or Luzern II
79%
Draw or Luzern II
57%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+
24%
Luzern II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals
87%
Basel II 2+ goals
61%
Basel II 3+ goals
34%
Luzern II 1+ goals
85%
Luzern II 2+ goals
56%
Luzern II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)
55%
Luzern II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.08

Luzern II attack 2.04 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Basel II scores more
43%
level
21%
Luzern II scores more
36%

Basel II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Basel II 1–3 Luzern II

Luzern II beat Basel II 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Nachwuchs-Campus Basel Platz 11 in Münchenstein.