Tranmere 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

J. Norwood 77'

8/25/2018

League Two · Round 5Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Tranmere40%

×Draw28%

Port Vale32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Tranmere

1.26

Port Vale

1.08

Tranmere creates 17% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 118 away

1.35

creates per match

1.16

1.01

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Tranmere

1.35

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Tranmere

1.01

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

68%

Tranmere or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

60%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Port Vale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

36%

Tranmere 3+ goals

13%

Port Vale 1+ goals

66%

Port Vale 2+ goals

29%

Port Vale 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

56%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.01 · 164 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.35 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more

40%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

32%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

D. Mottley-Henry← J. Smith

61'

P. Mullin← C. Stockton

63'

Luke Joyce

77'

J. Norwood↳ O. Banks

78'

S. Quigley← R. Miller

78'

D. Worrall← N. Smith

85'

Paul Mullin

86'

Mitchell Clark

Tranmere

Port

1

Brown

5

Legge

13

Rawlinson

15

▼

23

6

4

11

9

10

▼

3

1

5

16

14

12

6

18

▼

Smith

28

A

Banks

11

Jennings

10

⚽

Norwood

20

▼

Stockton

Manager: M. Mellon

61'▲D. Mottley-Henry←▼J. Smith

61'▲P. Mullin←▼C. Stockton

Tranmere substitutes

17Mottley-Henry9Mullin30Spellman7Tollitt39Long29Cole23George

Manager: N. Aspin

78'▲S. Quigley←▼R. Miller

78'▲D. Worrall←▼N. Smith

Port Vale substitutes

14Quigley7Worrall12Hornby2Gibbons16Pugh21Vassell19Dodds