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Luxembourg vs Lithuania — Euro Championship 2024

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lithuania
Lithuania
G. Rodrigues 55'
L. Barreiro 45'
F. Černych 14'
3/22/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Stade Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Luxembourg60%
×Draw20%
Lithuania20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
2.25
Lithuania
1.25

Luxembourg creates 80% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
1.00
Lithuania
0.50

allows per match

Luxembourg
2.00
Lithuania
3.50

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
80%
Luxembourg or Lithuania
80%
Draw or Lithuania
40%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
37%
Lithuania wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
89%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
65%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
39%
Lithuania 1+ goals
71%
Lithuania 2+ goals
36%
Lithuania 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
74%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.00 + Lithuania defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Luxembourg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Luxembourg scores more
60%
level
20%
Lithuania scores more
20%

Luxembourg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
V. ThillLuxembourgLuxembourg · M
8.5

Match Events

14'
F. Černych↳ S. Mikoliūnas
30'
Christopher Martins Pereira
45'
Saulius Mikoliūnas
45'
L. Barreiro↳ V. Thill
55'
G. Rodrigues↳ V. Thill
56'
A. Žulpa← A. Novikovas
59'
S. Bensi← D. Alves da Mota
61'
N. Valskis← D. Petravičius
67'
D. Sinani← L. Barreiro
70'
Dirk Carlson
76'
J. Marazas← S. Mikoliūnas
78'
D. Turpel← V. Thill
86'
Danel Sinani
86'
Nerijus Valskis

Possession

57%Luxembourg

Shots

24Luxembourg

Pass accuracy

54%Luxembourg

Statistics

LuxembourgLithuania
Overview
57%Possession43%
24Total Shots11
6Corners5
11Fouls8
Shots
24Total Shots11
7On Target6
11Off Target4
6Blocked1
10Inside Box9
14Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
479Total Passes353
407Accurate Passes252
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls8
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Luxembourg vs Lithuania

Luxembourg beat Lithuania 2-1 in Euro Championship on March 22, 2019.

Goals: F. Černych (14'), L. Barreiro (45'), G. Rodrigues (55').

Luxembourg controlled possession (57%) and registered 24 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Josy Barthel in Luxembourg.