Lithuania 0–2 Luxembourg: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Luxembourg

Danel Sinani 78', 44'

6/4/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lithuania18%

×Draw24%

Luxembourg58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.65

Lithuania

0.80

Luxembourg

1.65

Luxembourg creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

0.67

creates per match

1.38

1.92

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Lithuania

0.67

Luxembourg

1.38

allows per match

Lithuania

1.92

Luxembourg

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–212%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

42%

Lithuania or Luxembourg

76%

Draw or Luxembourg

82%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

5%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

55%

Lithuania 2+ goals

19%

Lithuania 3+ goals

5%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

81%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

49%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

24%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.67 + Luxembourg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Luxembourg attack 1.38 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lithuania scores more

18%

level

24%

Luxembourg scores more

58%

Luxembourg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Danel Sinani

Luxembourg · F

8.6

Match Events

44'

Danel Sinani↳ Y. Borges Sanches

46'

G. Rodrigues← V. Thill

54'

Justas Lasickas

60'

M. Olesen← Y. Borges Sanches

61'

Vykintas Slivka

63'

N. Petkevičius← P. Golubickas

63'

I. Kružikas← A. Klimavičius

69'

F. Bohnert← E. Muratović

78'

Danel Sinani↳ M. Olesen

81'

Nauris Petkevičius

81'

Maxime Chanot

84'

A. Dolžnikov← V. Slivka

89'

S. Thill← Danel Sinani

90+2'

Artur Dolznikov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaLuxembourg

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots17

6Corners10

20Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots17

2On Target5

6Off Target5

3Blocked7

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

356Total Passes441

284Accurate Passes363

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls5

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2