Luxembourg 0–2 Germany: Result & Stats | League #32

Luxembourg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Germany

N. Woltemade 69', 49'

11/14/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 9Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Luxembourg12%

×Draw28%

Germany60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchGermany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.46

1.38

Luxembourg

0.46

Germany

1.38

Germany creates 200% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.25

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.25

Germany

1.00

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.75

Germany

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Germany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–122%

0–215%

0–37%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

40%

Luxembourg or Germany

72%

Draw or Germany

88%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

2%

Germany wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

37%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

8%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

1%

Germany 1+ goals

75%

Germany 2+ goals

40%

Germany 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

17%

Germany (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Germany away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.25 + Germany defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.46

Germany attack 1.00 + Luxembourg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Luxembourg scores more

12%

level

28%

Germany scores more

60%

Germany at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Wirtz

Germany · F

8.0

Match Events

31'

Leon Goretzka

40'

Florian Bohnert

46'

M. Martins← F. Bohnert

49'

N. Woltemade↳ L. Sane

53'

F. Nmecha← L. Goretzka

55'

60'

66'

68'

69'

N. Woltemade↳ R. Baku

71'

T. de Sousa← O. Thill

79'

A. Embalo← M. Olesen

79'

A. Curci← C. Martins

79'

M. Thiaw← J. Tah

79'

J. Leweling← L. Sane

88'

S. Thill← A. Dardari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LuxembourgGermany

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots14

0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.45

4Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots14

1On Target7

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

307Total Passes591

241Accurate Passes522

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2