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Germany vs Luxembourg — League #32 2026

Germany
Germany
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
J. Kimmich 50', 21' (pen)
S. Gnabry 48'
D. Raum 12'
10/10/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 7PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germany92%
×Draw6%
Luxembourg3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany
4.17
Luxembourg
0.67

Germany creates 522% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Germany
4.33
Luxembourg
1.00

allows per match

Germany
0.33
Luxembourg
4.00

finishing

Germany+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Germany or draw
97%
Germany or Luxembourg
94%
Draw or Luxembourg
8%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+
79%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals
98%
Germany 2+ goals
91%
Germany 3+ goals
75%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
49%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
15%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)
97%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 4.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 4.33 + Luxembourg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.17

Luxembourg attack 1.00 + Germany defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Germany scores more
92%
level
6%
Luxembourg scores more
3%

Germany at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. KimmichGermanyGermany · D
10.0

Match Events

5'
Nick WoltemadeGoal cancelled
12'
D. Raum
19'
Serge GnabryPenalty confirmed
20'
Dirk Carlson
21'
J. KimmichPenalty
46'
W. Anton← N. Schlotterbeck
46'
E. Veiga← F. Bohnert
48'
S. Gnabry
50'
J. Kimmich
60'
Christopher Martins Pereira
61'
R. Baku← N. Woltemade
61'
J. Burkardt← K. Adeyemi
67'
O. Thill← T. de Sousa
67'
V. Selimovic← A. Dardari
68'
M. Beier← S. Gnabry
78'
S. Thill← C. Martins
82'
N. Brown← D. Raum
87'
E. Dzogovic← M. Olesen

Possession

85%Germany

Shots

31Germany

Pass accuracy

61%Germany

Statistics

GermanyLuxembourg
Overview
85%Possession15%
31Total Shots1
3.35Expected Goals (xG)0.16
7Corners0
10Fouls5
Shots
31Total Shots1
8On Target1
17Off Target0
6Blocked0
21Inside Box1
10Outside Box0
Passing
85%Possession15%
810Total Passes153
735Accurate Passes87
91%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

League #32: Germany 4–0 Luxembourg

Germany beat Luxembourg 4-0 in League #32 on October 10, 2025.

Goals: D. Raum (12'), J. Kimmich (21' pen, 50'), S. Gnabry (48').

Germany controlled possession (85%) and registered 31 shots to 1.

The match was played at PreZero Arena in Sinsheim.