Luxembourg 0–1 Belarus: Result & Stats

Luxembourg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Belarus

V. Gromyko 76'

9/8/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 2Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Luxembourg41%

×Draw29%

Belarus30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchBelarus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.01

Luxembourg

1.24

Belarus

1.01

Luxembourg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

0.85

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Luxembourg

1.31

Belarus

1.17

allows per match

Luxembourg

0.85

Belarus

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Belarus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

70%

Luxembourg or Belarus

71%

Draw or Belarus

59%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

18%

Belarus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

71%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

35%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

13%

Belarus 1+ goals

64%

Belarus 2+ goals

27%

Belarus 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

58%

Belarus (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.31 + Belarus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Belarus attack 1.17 + Luxembourg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luxembourg scores more

41%

level

29%

Belarus scores more

30%

Luxembourg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

K. Pechenin

Belarus · M

8.0

Match Events

42'

M. Kireev← I. Bakhar

45'

Florian Bohnert

46'

S. Thill← M. Olesen

46'

M. Pinto← L. Jans

46'

E. Yablonskiy← A. Selyava

53'

Max Ebong

65'

E. Mahmutović← F. Bohnert

67'

V. Gromyko← D. Antilevskiy

67'

Y. Kovalev← S. Karpovich

71'

Aleksandr Martynovich

76'

V. Gromyko↳ K. Pechenin

84'

Yuri Kovalev

84'

T. Rupil← E. Džogović

85'

G. Barkovskiy← E. Shikavka

86'

Maxime Chanot

89'

Christopher Martins Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LuxembourgBelarus

Overview

61%Possession39%

7Total Shots13

2Corners6

17Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots13

1On Target5

5Off Target4

1Blocked4

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

550Total Passes338

468Accurate Passes258

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3