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Belarus vs Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League 2018

Belarus
Belarus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
S. Politevich 54'
G. Rodrigues 78' (pen)
10/15/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 4ZTE-Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus34%
×Draw33%
Luxembourg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
0.92
Luxembourg
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Belarus
0.91
Luxembourg
1.38

allows per match

Belarus
0.45
Luxembourg
0.92

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
67%
Belarus or Luxembourg
67%
Draw or Luxembourg
66%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
12%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
60%
Belarus 2+ goals
23%
Belarus 3+ goals
7%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
60%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
23%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
50%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 0.91 + Luxembourg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Luxembourg attack 1.38 + Belarus defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Belarus scores more
34%
level
33%
Luxembourg scores more
33%

Belarus at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. MorisLuxembourgLuxembourg · G
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Ralph Schon
22'
Danel Sinani
30'
Kevin D'Anzico
46'
M. Martins← K. DAnzico
52'
Seid Korać
54'
S. Politevich↳ V. Gromyko
61'
N. Korzun← V. Gromyko
63'
German Barkovskiy
63'
M. Omosanya← A. Curci
64'
Michael Omosanya
68'
Valeri BocherovPenalty cancelled
74'
V. Klimovich← M. Ebong
74'
D. Antilevskiy← G. Barkovskiy
75'
Mathias Olesen
76'
T. Moreira← M. Olesen
78'
G. RodriguesPenalty
89'
A. Kontsevoy← E. Shikavka
89'
Y. Kovalev← V. Pigas
90+5'
Valeri Bocherov

Possession

35%Belarus

Shots

12Belarus

Pass accuracy

45%Belarus

Statistics

BelarusLuxembourg
Overview
35%Possession65%
12Total Shots14
5Corners2
16Fouls20
Shots
12Total Shots14
6On Target5
2Off Target4
4Blocked5
7Inside Box6
5Outside Box8
Passing
35%Possession65%
267Total Passes514
174Accurate Passes416
65%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls20
2Yellow Cards6
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Belarus vs Luxembourg

Belarus and Luxembourg drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on October 15, 2024.

Goals: S. Politevich (54'), G. Rodrigues (78' pen).

Luxembourg controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at ZTE-Aréna in Zalaegerszeg.