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Luunja vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

Luunja
Luunja
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
8/10/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 22Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Luunja65%
×Draw17%
Kuressaare II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luunja
2.81
Kuressaare II
1.44

Luunja creates 95% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

creates per match

Luunja
3.07
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

Luunja
1.24
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

Luunja+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luunja ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Luunja or draw
82%
Luunja or Kuressaare II
83%
Draw or Kuressaare II
35%

Winning margin

Luunja wins by 2+
45%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Luunja 1+ goals
94%
Luunja 2+ goals
76%
Luunja 3+ goals
52%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
76%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
42%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Luunja (draw refunded)
78%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luunja at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luunja attack 3.07 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.81

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Luunja defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Luunja scores more
65%
level
17%
Kuressaare II scores more
18%

Luunja at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Luunja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Luunja 2–2 Kuressaare II

Luunja and Kuressaare II drew 2-2 in Esiliiga B on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion in Tartu.