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Kuressaare II vs Luunja — Esiliiga B 2026

Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
FT
1 – 4
Luunja
Luunja
5/12/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 10Kuressaare kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kuressaare II26%
×Draw20%
Luunja54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare II
1.52
Luunja
2.27

Luunja creates 49% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kuressaare II
1.31
Luunja
2.15

allows per match

Kuressaare II
2.39
Luunja
1.73

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par
Luunja+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Luunja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw
46%
Kuressaare II or Luunja
80%
Draw or Luunja
74%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+
12%
Luunja wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals
78%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
45%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
20%
Luunja 1+ goals
90%
Luunja 2+ goals
66%
Luunja 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
32%
Luunja (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Luunja away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Luunja defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Luunja attack 2.15 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kuressaare II scores more
26%
level
20%
Luunja scores more
54%

Luunja at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Luunja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Kuressaare II 1–4 Luunja

Luunja beat Kuressaare II 4-1 in Esiliiga B on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Kuressaare kunstmuru in Kuressaare.