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Luton vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
C. Hourihane 3'
3/13/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw26%
Swansea26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.46
Swansea
1.02

Luton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Swansea
1.52

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Swansea-0.02on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Swansea
74%
Draw or Swansea
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Swansea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
77%
Luton 2+ goals
43%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Swansea 1+ goals
64%
Swansea 2+ goals
27%
Swansea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Swansea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.52 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Swansea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Swansea attack 1.10 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
26%
Swansea scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
K. NaismithLutonLuton · D
8.2

Match Events

3'
C. Hourihane↳ Y. Dhanda
28'
Kyle Naughton
45'
Ryan Bennett
45+2'
M. Cranie← D. Potts
56'
Freddie Woodman
64'
Connor Roberts
65'
J. Fulton← C. Hourihane
65'
J. Lowe← Y. Dhanda
70'
J. Collins← H. Cornick
83'
K. LuaLua← M. Pearson

Possession

56%Luton

Shots

12Luton

Pass accuracy

54%Luton

Statistics

LutonSwansea
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots8
7Corners4
10Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots8
5On Target2
6Off Target3
1Blocked3
7Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
419Total Passes331
326Accurate Passes220
78%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls11
0Yellow Cards4
5Offsides1

Luton 0 – 1 Swansea

Swansea beat Luton 1-0 in Championship on March 13, 2021.

Goals: C. Hourihane (3').

Luton controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.