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Luton vs Sheffield Wednesday — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
Preview
15:00
Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
1/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 24Kenilworth Road
Big match
49%
Luton
model favours
49%25%26%

Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton49%
×Draw25%
Sheffield Wednesday26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.63
Sheffield Wednesday
1.11

Luton creates 47% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 53 away

creates per match

Luton
2.04
Sheffield Wednesday
1.30

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Sheffield Wednesday
1.21

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Sheffield Wednesday
75%
Draw or Sheffield Wednesday
51%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
26%
Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
80%
Luton 2+ goals
48%
Luton 3+ goals
22%
Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
67%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
30%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
66%
Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luton scores more
49%
level
25%
Sheffield Wednesday scores more
26%

Luton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Luton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Luton
Possession-dominant
Sheffield Wednesday
Balanced
56%PossessionBiggest gap50%
77%Pass accuracy69%
12.9Shots12.8
1.64xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LutonSheffield Wednesday

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Luton
1
Draws
0
Sheffield Wednesday
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–12–13–21–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Luton
DWWWW
Wednesday
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Luton host Sheffield Wednesday

January 9, 2027: Luton take on Sheffield Wednesday in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Luton host Sheffield Wednesday at Kenilworth Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.