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Luton vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
L. Berry 90'
J. Lindsay 1'
11/12/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Luton62%
×Draw23%
Rotherham15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.75
Rotherham
0.72

Luton creates 143% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Rotherham
0.50

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Rotherham
2.12

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
85%
Luton or Rotherham
77%
Draw or Rotherham
38%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
36%
Rotherham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
83%
Luton 2+ goals
52%
Luton 3+ goals
25%
Rotherham 1+ goals
51%
Rotherham 2+ goals
16%
Rotherham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
81%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Rotherham defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rotherham attack 0.50 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Luton scores more
62%
level
23%
Rotherham scores more
15%

Luton at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
V. JohanssonRotherhamRotherham · G
7.9

Match Events

1'
J. Lindsay
18'
Wes Harding
23'
Daniel Barlaser
46'
B. Norton-Cuffy← P. Kioso
47'
Lee Peltier
57'
L. Berry← G. Osho
66'
Alfie Doughty
70'
L. Freeman← A. Campbell
70'
H. Cornick← E. Adebayo
76'
T. Eaves← B. Wiles
88'
Cohen Bramall
89'
Tom Eaves
90+8'
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
90+3'
Conor Washington
90+1'
C. Washington← C. Ogbene
90+1'
H. Odoffin← J. Lindsay
90'
L. Berry↳ J. Clark

Possession

53%Luton

Shots

18Luton

Pass accuracy

50%Luton

Statistics

LutonRotherham
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots8
12Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots8
7On Target2
6Off Target2
5Blocked4
11Inside Box2
7Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
345Total Passes330
211Accurate Passes204
61%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards7
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs Rotherham

Luton and Rotherham drew 1-1 in Championship on November 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Lindsay (1'), L. Berry (90').

Luton controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.