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Luton vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
5/4/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Luton62%
×Draw23%
Rotherham15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.75
Rotherham
0.72

Luton creates 143% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Rotherham
0.50

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Rotherham
2.12

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
85%
Luton or Rotherham
77%
Draw or Rotherham
38%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
36%
Rotherham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
83%
Luton 2+ goals
52%
Luton 3+ goals
25%
Rotherham 1+ goals
51%
Rotherham 2+ goals
16%
Rotherham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
81%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Rotherham defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rotherham attack 0.50 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Luton scores more
62%
level
23%
Rotherham scores more
15%

Luton at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
R. GilesRotherhamRotherham · M
7.7

Match Events

43'
Michael Smith
46'
H. Cornick← D. Potts
62'
P. Ruddock← J. Collins
65'
F. Ladapo← M. Smith
65'
C. Ogbene← M. Olosunde
74'
J. Mattock← D. Barlaser
76'
K. LuaLua← R. Tunnicliffe

Possession

56%Luton

Shots

13Luton

Pass accuracy

54%Luton

Statistics

LutonRotherham
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots9
6Corners7
11Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots9
3On Target2
8Off Target3
2Blocked4
6Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
369Total Passes282
235Accurate Passes156
64%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Luton vs Rotherham

Luton and Rotherham drew 0-0 in Championship on May 4, 2021.

Luton controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.