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Luton vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
3/26/2027League OneLeague One · Round 37Kenilworth Road
Big match
43%
Plymouth
model favours
33%24%43%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Luton33%
×Draw24%
Plymouth43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.35
Plymouth
1.58

Plymouth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Luton
1.49
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Luton
1.17
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Luton+0.15scores more
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Luton or draw
57%
Luton or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
67%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
14%
Plymouth wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
74%
Luton 2+ goals
39%
Luton 3+ goals
15%
Plymouth 1+ goals
79%
Plymouth 2+ goals
47%
Plymouth 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
43%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 11 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.49 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Luton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luton scores more
33%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
43%

Plymouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Luton win just 37% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Luton play Possession-dominant, Plymouth Attack-heavy
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Luton
Possession-dominant
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
56%Possession49%
77%Pass accuracy68%
12.9Shots13.5
1.64xGBiggest gap2.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LutonPlymouth

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Luton
2
Draws
3
Plymouth
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 71%
2–10–12–31–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Luton
DWWWW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Luton host Plymouth

March 26, 2027: Luton take on Plymouth in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Luton host Plymouth at Kenilworth Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.